22 February 2012

Hornby skids off track

27/01/2012 Miles Nolan

Shares in hobbies specialist Hornby (HRN) have slumped 16 per cent this morning on a surprise profit warning, which has forced a significant downgrade.

As with most retailers, Hornby suffered a weak pre-Christmas run-in, as consumers shied away from buying high value items such as its model railway and Scalextric sets. Major accounts with high street chains such as Argos and Toys R Us performed badly, but Hornby still achieved higher sales in 2011 than the previous year.

Hornby has been doing well in mainland Europe, particularly in France and Germany. Plenty of new product launches will also help. This year, backed by an agreement with Lucas Films to sell slot racing products, it will launch a range of new Scalextric Star Wars products, with the first version due next month to be sold in a 3D format.

It has also developed a number of pre-school products such as puzzles and jigsaws based on the new TV series Olly the Little White Van, which will be sold using its infamous Corgi brand. In addition, the fully listed company has signed a deal with US based Reeves International to distribute their range of Breyer collectable horses in the UK. A deal to sell pin badges and die cast vehicles under the Moshi Monsters brand should also boost sales.

Speaking to Growth Company Investor, chief executive Frank Martin said 'the downgrade is a blow, but we are now selling far more low price range products and are becoming increasingly global.'

Full-year results to March are due in early June, but Numis has slashed its pre-tax profit forecast by £2 million to £5 million, which would deliver EPS of 9.3p and a 6p a share dividend. For 2013 the expectation is for a £6.5 million pre-tax profit, EPS of 12p and a 7p dividend.

The Olympics should provide a useful boost to Hornby, with a number of attractively priced products (typically under £10). With a raft of well known brands, and an increasing line up of new products, the current share price of 104p provides an interesting opportunity.

Tags: London Olympics, Main market, New product lines, Profit warning, Tough Christmas

Sector: Leisure Goods

Companies: Hornby

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