2 September 2010

Brokers' Views: Altium Securities

'Positive outlook for ad spend'

09/06/2009

Considering the small- and mid-cap media sector outlook to be ‘a good deal more positive following a period of widespread share price weakness’, Altium analyst Roddy Davidson sees a ‘positive outlook for advertising spend’ and picks ventures best and worst placed to emerge from economic downturn.

TV show producer Shed Media, which makes the BBC’s Waterloo Road and Who Do You Think You Are?, amongst others, is ‘well placed’ to extend its strong momentum, with recent recommissions providing good visibility. With exposure to a broad spread of genres, successful brand and broadcaster relationships and an ‘extremely cost-effective’ business model, Shed represents ‘a highly attractive asset within a consolidating industry’.

B2B performers
Two less glamorous companies worth looking at are scientific and academic publisher Informa and business publisher United Business Media. Thanks to its recent rights issue, Informa has removed the ‘spectre’ of a covenant breach, ‘which has held back the group’s valuation and resulted in a significant discount to other B2B players’, as well as making it a possible bid target. UBM has remained ‘resilient despite a tough environment’ and Davidson argues the group’s ‘significant discount to other international B2B companies is unwarranted’.

Two to sell are publishers Centaur Media and Bloomsbury Publishing. At the latter, Davidson remains ‘concerned regarding trading prospects and would not rule out further forecast downgrades’, due to pressure on consumer spending. Despite strong cash generation, a growing online presence and the prospect of upgrades, Centaur is a sell, since its ‘valuation remains too rich’.

Tags: Buy/Hold , Debt , Growth Stocks , Sell/avoid , Undervalued

Sector: Media

Companies: Shed Media , Informa , United Business Media , Bloomsbury Publishing

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