Sector Articles
The commodities surge has continued, with even rice hitting a record $1,000 a tonne, causing mayhem in South East Asian markets.
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With oil flirting above $100 a barrel and gold bouncing above $1,000 an ounce and back down below $930, the resources markets have not lacked excitement.
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BHP Billiton’s £64 billion hostile bid for Rio Tinto has continued to enthral the mining market.
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Demand for steel from China and India continues to fuel strong increases in iron ore production. Rio Tinto increased output at its Hamersley iron operation in Western Australia’s Pilbara region 24 per cent year-on-year to a record 22.8 million tonnes in the second quarter of the year and production increases at Robe River, also in Australia, and in Canada, took the group’s total to 32 million tonnes.
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Mining companies are enticing punters with their glowing deposits of uranium.
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Concern about the quality of some of the resource companies hoping to list in London has prompted the AIM authorities to take soundings about whether and how they should tighten the rules
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Expectations of a rise in US interest rates and a strengthening of the US dollar have been hurting gold and other precious metals intermittently. These fears helped send bullion below $400 an ounce for the first time in months, with many shares moving in sympathy, though buyers are still around at these levels and prices have rebounded some of the way.
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With gold grazing $312 an oz, a 20 per cent increase on late 2000, bulls are talking about further gains – to $325 and then onwards in stages. Sceptics suggest the unscrambling of previous hedge positions has caused only a temporary upturn. But the prospect of US deficits and pressure on the dollar suggest there could be more to it than that. Mining shares, although mostly well up on a 12-month view, remain mixed in the short term. Harmony Gold Mining (HRM) eased to 950.25p after a US share placing at the equivalent of 964p, but Durban Rooderpoort Deep hit a new high of 313.5p. Aim newcomer Peter Hambro Mining floated at 130p, opened at 136p and lost most early gains to close at 137.5p
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Gold has held above $300 an ounce at nearly $304, encouraging fans to talk of a new bull market, with forward hedgers and banks squeezed. War fears, Japanese buying, no central bank sales and prospects of a big US deficit are all helping. Platinum has bounced up and base metals, such as nickel, aluminium and copper, have firmed. Rio Tinto has slipped back to £13.06, but Lonmin has moved up 48p over the week to £12.20p and Cluff Mining has eased slightly to 264p. Some minnows are faring better, with Aussie copper miner Perilya at 33.25p, up threefold since our December mention, and Palmaris, with coal and gold interests, at 11p, more than double our recommendation two weeks ago.
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Gold has been testing $300 again in a troubled international scene. Shares have been mixed, although Harmony (HRH) at 787.25p and Durban Roodepoort at 241p are decently ahead of last week's mentions. Rio Tinto (RIO) and Antofagasta (ANTO) have been lacklustre, as has Cluff Mining (CLU), ahead of imminent reserve news. But there is lively action among some of the smaller counters.
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Mining markets remain mixed, while oil has stolen the limelight. Rio Tinto has marked time at £14.48p, Lonmin shaded another 8p to £11.90 and Antofagasta slipped 5p to 625p. Cluff Mining meanwhile has rallied 8.5p to 279.5p. They all look sound in the longer term, but new deals are still seeking investors' attention. Broker Canaccord is steering entrepreneur Peter Hambro to Aim and has two or three more up its sleeve, as do several others.
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With attention switching to crisis-induced oil price increases, several mining shares have been marking time, with Rio Tinto (RIO) 40p off on the week at £14.48p and Lonmin (LMI) 23p easier at £11.98p. Longer term investors should hold on. Profit-taking has clipped Cluff Mining (CLU) back to 271p, but London-based Chilean copper producer Antofagasta (ANTO) is still 22p ahead at 630p, though 2p off its year's high. Both could go better. Deals, floats and fundraisings are still coming through. The Australians, in particular, are keeping busy.
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Mining market sentiment has been dampened in the short term by gold dipping back below the magic $300 an ounce to $297, although most analysts maintain the underlying trend is still upward. After strong recent performances, Rio at £14.40 and Cluff at 275p are off their best, but progress should be resumed soon.
Companies operating in Africa have been showing off their wares to each other and to investors.
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Prospects of US government deficits swollen by defence spending hikes and the re-emergence of gold fans have helped push the yellow metal up $10 in a week to $289 an ounce, and fed a surge in gold shares in Johannesburg to record levels in rand terms. Anglo American at around £11.50, Anglogold at £29.25, and Goldfields at 100.75p, are close to or at 12-month highs in sterling terms too, and Harmony has hit a new high of 585.75p since our last mention.
Some profit taking might be prudent, although there is a sense of momentum building. Meanwhile, there are other fish in the sea.
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Profit-taking has taken some of the shine off mining shares over the past week, despite the gold price's resilience at $282 an ounce amid suggestions that continentals prefer the yellow metal to euros under their beds. Rio and Antofagasta have slid to £13.08 and 546p respectively, and Ashanti, at 278.5p, has shed earlier gains on denials by the Ghana government that it would abandon its 'golden share'.
Aussie player Newcrest, however, has edged up to 180p on hopes that it could be a bid target after the Newmont-Normandy deal.
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Majors have outshone mining minnows of late, with Rio Tinto strong at £13.46 and worth holding, Antofagasta 18p up on last week at 550p and also one to keep, Lonmin is 36p up at £10.78, while Harmony is 15.5p up at £5: both should go further.
In contrast, Tertiary Minerals is nearly 4p off at 18.5p, despite prospects, but should recover, and other smaller shares are off. Griffin Mining has gained 0.75p to 5.5p on Chinese prospects and should go better. Punters await imminent news from Gold Mines of Sardinia.
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Bombs in Jerusalem have prompted a modest, probably temporary, uptick in the gold price to $276 an ounce, with platinum firmer at nearly $458. BHP Billiton's decision to spend £90 million on a new coal mine in New South Wales has put the shares up 11p to 347p, where they still look good value.
The same can be said of platinum play Lonmin at 973p.
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Copper miner Antofagasta has continued its rally to 520p, but other majors have marked time. 'Fags', along with Rio and Lonmin, is worth holding for committed long-term sector supporters, but more dramatic opportunities exist for those willing to take a higher risk.
In this context, Australians continue to eye London. Investors should treat them selectively.
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Bids and deals – notably the battle between Anglo Gold and Newmont for Australia's Normandy – have boosted sentiment in the mining sector. Rio Tinto has gained 20 per cent since our 6 November mention to £13.74, copper play Antofagasta has risen 10 per cent to 504.5p and Lonmin has advanced to 955p, but most are still some way off their highs. Australians and gem miners are again beating a path to London. Often a sign of market maturity, this trend is catching a different phase of the cycle.
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Gold has failed to break back up through $280 an ounce and hold it, but some of the gloom has lightened elsewhere. Rio, advocated here last week, has edged higher to £11.58 and copper play Antofagasta has inched 24p to 450p.
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Mining shares remain in a state of flux, as economic uncertainty persists and many metal prices continue to weaken. Gold has slipped below $280 an ounce, despite City talk of $340 by February. Rio Tinto is ignoring six year aluminium price lows and spending £535 million on the first stage of an alumina refinery Down Under and will be rewarded long term, despite an immediate 28p price fall to £11.02. Copper's gloomy outlook has sent Antofagasta back down to 426.5p.
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With gold easier again and copper continuing to plumb new depths, shares in major mining groups, such as Rio Tinto, Antofagasta and Lonmin, are drifting again, though Ashanti is up 4p at 231p since our mention last week. There are more signs of life from some of the tiddlers, such as Hereward Ventures, but a few new issues are having problems.
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Gold has wobbled away from its post-11 September levels, but, so far, has contrived to stay above $280 an ounce, an important 'technical' level. Meanwhile, some mining majors, such as Rio Tinto at £11.93, have been firm, with BHP Billiton at 317p more than 40 per cent up from its 12 month's low. Hold on. Bulgarian players Navan and Hereward are 9 and 13 per cent up respectively since our mention last week. But Angus & Ross and Tertiary Minerals have eased on profit taking.
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Gold has continued to hold up well – so far – at around $292 an ounce in the current atmosphere of crisis, in the face of heavy selling by some central banks, but the same cannot be said for shares. Angus & Ross has spurted 40 per cent to 20.5p after last week's mention, but majors, such as Rio and Lonmin, are down. Individual deals are what the market wants just now.
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Most mining shares still bear the scars of 11 September (when Impala boss Roy Pitchford got out of New York's Marriott Hotel just in time). Gold lately came off the top at $289 an ounce and aluminium and other metals are easing. Some mining shares did well in the Great Depression of the 1930s, but it is uncertain whether history will repeat itself, despite rallies in the likes of Rio Tinto and Lonmin. Good news from Dwyka, Celtic, Angus & Ross and elsewhere could arouse some stirrings, as might Afri-Can's Ofex approach.
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Terrorism and slaughter in the USA have had the immediate effect of sending gold up $15 to $287 an ounce, but much of the share price action relates to other metals. Aquarius Platinum has gained 8 per cent to 308p since our mention last week and platinum miner Lonmin is perking up at 858p, while both diversified miner Rio Tinto and copper specialist Antofagasta have weakened again. Eurasia Mining looks impressive with a discovery in the Urals and Tertiary is working on a new deal.
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Metal prices have stagnated of late, with platinum well below its peaks, gold still short of the chartists' $277 an ounce target and copper futures said to be heading south. Rio Tinto at £12.19 has eased marginally, but remains a hold, as do Antofagasta, off 5p at 510p, and Lonmin at 887.5p.
For now, the show is being stolen by Australian companies or companies with Australian links, such as Aquarius, Dwka, CBH and Perilya.
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The Bank Holiday brought a brighter shine to many mining shares as advisers plan a series of moves. Aim-listed Brancote has gained 5p since our mention to 152.5p and Gold Mines of Sardinia has edged forward to 17.25p, both worth holding.
Among the major mining groups, Rio Tinto has bounced up to £12.33 and retains its long-term merits. So does copper play Antofagasta, on the upswing again at 515p, ahead of interim results.
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Some bullish stirrings have returned to mining shares, as gold hovers not far short of $277 an ounce, claimed by some chartists as a trigger point. Base metal giant RIO TINTO, however, is still easier at £11.53, in the wake of bearish metal comments. Elsewhere, ANTOFAGASTA, LONMIN and MURCHISON UNITED have made modest gains and newcomer EUROPEAN DIAMONDS is buoyant at 191.5p.
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Projects continue to present themselves in a lacklustre market, especially for majors. Rio Tinto's own metals' bearishness has not helped the shares at £11.75, though it remains good for the long-term, as does copper miner Antofagasta at 485p.
Lonmin continues depressed at 870p, but its platinum prospects imply an eventual strong rebound. Ofex-traded Angus & Ross remains strong at 22p, ahead of its move to Aim.
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Mines have had another mostly gloomy week, though Gold Fields' doubling of resource estimates for platinum group metals at its Arctic joint venture with Outokumpu helped rally its shares at 299.5p and Ashanti crept further ahead to 460p. Lonmin has shed 101.5p to 897.5p and Navan's slide has taken it to 95p, despite talk of imminent good news. These companies still have long-term merits, as does Antofagasta, down again to 433.5p. And bold spirits are still tapping the markets to fund projects.
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Many mining shares have been drifting or falling lately, against a background of lacklustre metal prices, including gold, though some, such as Rio Tinto at £12.31, Antofagasta at 467.5p or Lonmin at 989p, remain sound long-term holdings. SG has had to pull its Chapada Diamonds Aim float. David Williamson's Oxus Mining new issue has quickly fallen 27 per cent to 21.75p, pending a project report for banks. But elsewhere, there are pockets of light.
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Some of the mining majors have been showing strength of late, against a background of falling interest rates. Elsewhere, bids, deals and new issues have stolen investors' attention.
Rio Tinto is approaching £13, helped by a solution of infrastructure disputes at its Australian iron ore joint venture. Lonmin is strong at £10.40. Australia's London-listed Western Mining at 365p is enjoying speculation about a bid from one of the giants and could reward a flutter.
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Mining companies are still speeding to London and other financial centres to fund deals around the world, as share prices oscillate. Cluff Mining (CLU), up a modest 4p since last week, to 201.5p, is maintaining its recovery on platinum hopes. Elsewhere, falls in copper prices – dismissed as 'seasonal' by miners – has not helped the short-term movements of the likes of Rio (RIO) at £12.53 and Antofagasta (ANTO) at 474p. But it is worth holding some.
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With gold having failed to breach the $300 barrier and now receding to the low $280s, some of the heat has gone out of the mining market. Major groups, from Anglo American to Rio Tinto, have eased over the past week, with soon-to-be-merged Billiton off 11.75p at 372.5p and platinum miner Lonmin down 29.5p to £10.48, though still worth holding. At the smaller end, Navan, seeking Bulgarian gold, is 11p up at 139p since our mention last week. Cluff Mining has bounced 9p to 162p.
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