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Robert Tyerman's exploration insights

Companies: CER    CUX    MANA    PDL    WNL   
01/03/2005

Certain City sages are growing nervous about the small mining company market and are beginning to question how much longer today's boom climate can last

Richard Lake, technical analyst at broker Brewin Dolphin, has warned that the chart signals for gold and gold shares make him 'extremely nervous' and other market practitioners are voicing similar concerns.

But the music has not stopped just yet, although pure gold plays may not be as popular as usual and much of the action is switching to other areas. Broker John East is understood to be working with a group of entrepreneurs on a chunky float based on a range of gold, diamond and oil concessions in West Africa (which could have positive implications for gold and diamond explorer Mano River at 11p), together with commodity trading and infrastructure operations.

Energy group gushes

The market is still in the mood for oil and gas ventures, for the time being at any rate. AIM-quoted Centurion Energy, the Calgary-based group whose boss Said Arrata says he expects daily production of 250 million cubic feet of gas by the end of this year, is making progress in South Manzala in Egypt.

The company expects its Ezzaouia 15 well in Tunisia will be able to contribute to that total and has hopes elsewhere in that country. Growth Company Investor first recommended Centurion at 57p in June 2003 and, perhaps over-cautiously, last November suggested partial profit-taking at 295p, while holding a significant slice for further growth.

Since then the shares have raced ahead to 817p. They should go even higher, though, once again, caution suggests cashing in some.

Foo's new Kazakhstan deal

Central Asian energy play Victoria Oil & Gas, chaired by Kazakhstan enthusiast Kevin Foo, is to spend £4.5 million in cash and shares to buy the Kemerkol oil and gas field in the same country. The deal brings AIM-quoted Victoria, which was spun out of Foo's Celtic Resources and bought Celtic's Kazakhstan oil and gas prospects at Tamdykol last year, proven reserves of 8.7 million barrels with potential resources of 7.8 million barrels on top.

Victoria is paying £3.18 million cash and issuing £1.32 million in shares to vendor Saga Creek Gold and hopes to produce 1,000 barrels a day from Kemerkol by the end of the year, with 4.4 million barrels a day 'within three years'. Victoria shares have already trebled to 64p since July's float, but still offer speculative possibilities.

Moritz eyes pariah states

When he is not working with Phil Edmonds on his controversial White Nile spectacular in Sudan, mining company player Brian Moritz is helping launch ventures in some even more controversial spots. He has teamed up with South African entrepreneur Adonis Pouroulis to raise £45 million for Cuban prospector Copper Resources and with US entrepreneur Brian Hughes to extract £1 million for Niyati Resources, which wants to develop coal-bed methane deposits in Zimbabwe.

Pouroulis, whose chief company Petra Diamonds has agreed a prospectively advantageous deal with Aussie-listed gem producer Crown Diamonds, and other South African backers will have an initial 60 per cent of Copper Resources, which wants to raise £4 million at 25p for a bankable feasibility study of Cuba's Mantua copper project. Meanwhile, Niyati, where Moritz is assisted by co-adjutor John Woolgar's son-in-law James Burgess, wants £1 million at 1p ahead of the eventual departure of Robert Mugabe.

Both are essentially for brave speculators. Less risk is inherent in Petra, though at 95p the shares are up nearly 80 per cent since our recommendation in November.


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